A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
